Based on complex economic models, L. E. Peabody
& Associates, Inc. forecasts several published price and cost indexes and prices for
various commodities. Our proprietary forecasting models reflect historical data and the underlying
changes in trends that impact prices, costs and indexes. Our forecasts include, for example,
projections of overall inflation, economic growth trends, production capacity changes, and
advancements in technology and productivity and other economic factors.
Forecasts are developed at regular intervals for railroad industry price and cost
indexes such as the Rail Cost Adjustment Factor (both unadjusted and adjusted for
productivity). We also develop forecasts of several U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics indexes such as the Producer Price Index ("PPI") specific to various
commodities and categories of equipment and materials, as well as the PPI general commodity
index. The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis indexes that we
forecast include both the Gross Domestic Product/Implicit Price Deflator
("GDP/IPD") index and several specific component GDP/IPD indexes. L. E.
Peabody & Associates, Inc. also forecasts fuel surcharges, coal prices, natural gas prices, crude oil prices
on a regional basis, as well as the New York Mercantile Exchange Futures Prices for
natural gas. While forecasts of general industry indexes are available from the Firm,
L. E. Peabody & Associates, Inc. also provides unique contract specific indexes (or
market basket of indexes) utilized by our clients.
The Firm has also developed an economic model that forecasts changes in a
railroad's annual costs and unit costs. Major inputs into the model include projected changes
in traffic levels, commodities handled, movement characteristics, productivity, and
inflation.